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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Back in September I publicly offered to enter into a wager with anyone who was claiming that Bitcoin Core v30 was going to result in a massive node crash / network outage. Nary a Knotzi took me up on it, to my great chagrin. Today I'm making a similar, but better, offer to BIP-110 supporters. I propose we enter into a trustless fork futures contract. I'll take the side that will make the deposited BTC only spendable if BIP-110 fails, you take the side that's only spendable upon success. Minimum 1 BTC wager to make it worth my time. Come take my coins and show us your conviction! Who will have the guts to put their money where their mouth is? @74ffc51c…1d6d1856 @fdd5e8f6…a73464a7 @84630768…fa019ae8 @92cbe586…116433b8 @c49d52a5…751aca15 @42efa0a6…90559fc5
💬 79 replies

Replies (50)

Jameson Lopp30d ago
It sounds like you don't understand the game theory behind forks. It's entirely based upon economics. A bet won't change the outcome, but it provides a strong signal as to how the fork factions are economically weighted. TL:DR if the only folks supporting a fork are a handful of poor plebs yelling at clouds, we can expect the fork to fail.
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StoneCodlHodl 💎👊30d ago
This post sponsored by Citrea. Rug the spammers.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Yes, rug me by taking my bitcoin! How much are you willing to commit?
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Detective Deft Defector30d ago
King shit
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jgbtc30d ago
You can afford to lose a bitcoin or two unlike those of us who haven't sold our souls. I'm sure you got a nice bonus for doing Citrea's bidding. 📝 7c3c9606…
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Telluride30d ago
https://x.com/cryptojiven/status/2021620104883212502
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GFY30d ago
"LA LA LA LA LA, I CANT HEAR YOU" -SLOPP
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Telluride30d ago
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229f4a3…0924c830d ago
Centralized vs. Decentralized. Learn the difference.
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Paredur30d ago
BIP-110 Welcome.
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Donutpanic29d ago
Censorship on chain level – Who gets to define "spam"? Breaks Bitcoin's core neutrality & permissionless ethos. No content-policing in the base layer. UASF chain-split risk – Tiny signaling (~2-3% nodes), forced activation = 2017-style fork war redux. Economic suicide for noobs & hodlers. Slippery slope to protocol capture – Ban inscriptions today, privacy coins or "bad" txs tomorrow. Turns sound money into politicized shitcoin ruleset.
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77fc628…3e877229d ago
We should not be arguing about this. Spammers say you can’t define “spam”. It’s not that difficult- if you need to attach large amounts of arbitrary data, or hide it in massive amounts of unspendable “dust” outputs, then it’s not a financial transaction, and belongs somewhere else that’s not on the bitcoin blockchain. I agree there’s a bit of a slippery slope here - like how side-chains anchor on the base layer blockchain, and we should periodically reconsider how much arbitrary data is needed for financially adjacent use-cases.
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Maryam29d ago
"Time to put the ‘bit’ in Bitcoin 💥🪙"
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77fc628…3e877229d ago
Who was claiming that “Bitcoin Core v30 was going to result in a massive node crash / network outage”? It seems like you offered a bet that nobody would reasonably take and now claim it means people were wrong about something vaguely related. Instead, can you please explain the rationale for the Core v30 changes to OP_RETURN and why they are beneficial for Bitcoin as money? I still have not heard a single rational explanation for that change.
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Hazey29d ago
📝 d74519f5…
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77fc628…3e877229d ago
For those reading the thread (because you obviously already understand this - and that’s why you keep pushing it), 1 BTC for you is far less of a commitment than 1 BTC for many other people. That’s if the bet makes sense. I’m not sure this bet even makes sense. I think the issue people are raising is that spam is bad and that we should discourage spam. Your response should also be that spam is bad - but you refuse to say that, so people reasonably conclude that you have a financial interest in spamming the Bitcoin blockchain. We can define spam as non-monetary use of Bitcoin - then legitimately argue about how to identify that via dust outputs etc… We should also agree that fighting spam is not really hard (it’s tedious, but not difficult from a technical perspective. Knots has some very simple spam filters Core could adopt - that would need to be periodically updated as spammers change tactics).
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McSats29d ago
🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Time Chain29d ago
I don't need to gamble to show my conviction. I just need to run my node. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dYA9vYa0iwQ
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Juraj29d ago
We don't care which node you run, you can even run a Bitcoin SV node for all we care. Skin in the game is not running some software on your VPS.
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Jameson Lopp29d ago
You don't NEED to do anything, but consensus game theory is ultimately economic in nature. Knotzis won't be able to push miners into doing their bidding unless they have sufficient economic power to reject blocks of which they disapprove and thus ensure that the miners can't realize revenue. Your non-economic nodes can reject all the blocks you want and miners won't care at all. The fact that Knotzis have zero economic conviction tells me everything I need to know about how this fork is going to go.
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Marcus Satbard29d ago
Man, I have been looking for a single BIP‑110 promoter who doesn’t consider it a shitfork for over 3 months. I’m willing to swap smaller amounts via a trustless (on‑chain) multisig. It turns out, they’re all full of shit liars who push others towards a fork that they don’t believe will succeed.
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BushRat29d ago
Not taking the word of a dishonest shitcoiner. "Ohh you can afford to gamble hundred thousand dollars on some retarded nonsense where I'm going to scam you? Ohh you don't have convictions" Most retarded argument I've seen from lopp so far
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Jameson Lopp29d ago
The rat thinks there's going to be a fork 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
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Primate29d ago
What would a narc do? Marketing via virtue signaling—a twofer.
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MineBTC28d ago
I run a node on a mini-PC and a 2T SSD. I'll upgrade when it's time but for now it's amply sufficient. I take the under that spamers will be filtered out by proof of work as was originally intended.
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MineBTC7d ago
And I'm running Core of course.
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BIP110-er - No garbage in my storage.28d ago
I am very picky on which games I "put my skin". I am using multiple tools and resources to judge the pros and cons of spam tolerance on Bitcoin. Your coding expertise and( hats off !) your pre eth/shitcoin involvement have been great but now they aren't enough to convince me to tolerate spam. Your "skin" comes from $30/BTC and mine comes from a much more expensive one. If "skin" is measured with how much of your sacrifice you put to get that amount of BTC the ratio of " skin" should be different. If you're so convinced that you're right go and debate with many of those who you're avoiding continuously by putting the right "skin in the game" ratio.
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Liberty Farmer27d ago
So to be clear, knots didn't workout for him, so bip110 was created as well/instead?
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Niko 📚 Konsensus Network27d ago
I doubt your target audience has 1btc to wager.
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Jameson Lopp27d ago
This is a plausible explanation.
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Jay26d ago
I love the idea of pre-30 Bitcoin nodes living forever now. If there are crucial soft forks in the future, but they're built on post 30 or knots, I just won't run them. Bitcoin devs cooked themselves on both sides in this debacle.
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MAHDOOD26d ago
Yeah they’re fucking around too much and I don’t like taking these risks because of their disagreements
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Jameson Lopp21d ago
@Asanoha I'm told you have expressed interest in this wager, what say you?
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Asanoha20d ago
You’re not even following me!
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pico417d ago
Well, as you say in your own blogpost there is indeed a high probability of chainsplitting. Maybe you like “spewing nonsense” on your blog? With no replay protection for transactions with spam, of course, as they’re the target of the filter. But I don’t see why a transaction that does not use any known exploit for data storage couldn’t be in both chains in the case of a split.
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Jameson Lopp17d ago
Practically speaking, I don't expect a chain split until August and when it happens you won't be able to "sell the BIP-110 side" of the fork because no services will support it. It won't be safe to use due to the extremely low hashrate and lack of replay protection. It will be a DOA fork.
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Telluride30d ago
Greed & lies.
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Tara29d ago
Once again, why do you care so much what he's doing? Let people do what they want and stop trying to persuade people to your shitty way of thinking about it. The irony of you calling people knotzies is hilarious because Its quite the other way around. 🌻
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Bilthon28d ago
Because these people are otherwise wasting everyone's time whining about something they have zero conviction about. They don't have to do anything, but since they also won't shut up you'd expect them to be willing to act when it's required.
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Matt29d ago
If I may; the use of a term such as 'knotzis' might be mildly amusing but it's also part of a cultural change which is accelerating our decline in standards. We can have disagreements, without ever reaching agreement, without the use of absurdist name calling. It's better when we don't do that.
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Time Chain29d ago
I ami'm confused by the phrase "economic conviction". My node is lighter to run, and costs me nothing to change clients. I relay the transactions that make sense to me, and I encourage others to do the same. If nobody follows me, then the rest of the network can have clogged mempools that need a plunger. Keep in mind, I don't even have to run a node in the first place. It's a volunteer system.
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Jameson Lopp20d ago
Correct. If we engage in a contract, I'll follow you and blast the news across all my networks. How much are you willing to deposit? I'll match pretty much anything.
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Asanoha20d ago
The reason why no one from the Knots camp will take your bet is because the whole point of Knots and BIP-110 is to reduce gambling on Bitcoin.
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Jameson Lopp20d ago
Yeah I've heard that one before. Folks are free to believe that, it just shows a lack of understanding in the importance of economic signals. Of course, by abstaining that reveals an economic signal itself. I'm assuming that was your explanation for abstaining.
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Jameson Lopp29d ago
"Knotzi" is the perfect term because they're authoritarians who seek to only allow "pure" Bitcoiners to use the network. 🥺😆😅😬🤣🫠
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Time Chain29d ago
By "pure Bitcoiner" are you referring to monetary users? I would argue that the mempool.space clogging jpeggers with their 0.1 sat per vbyte "transactions" are making node running not fun anymore. I have my 2023 prune=550 snapshot zipped around 5 gb now about 13 gb in 2026. The UTXO bloat from all this unfun garbage is filling up my RAM and disk and I am not a "Knotzi" for choosing a peaceful separation from jpeggers. If you disagree, you are welcome to relay it, store it and promote it. As for me, I enjoy my light, suckless node.
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Asanoha18d ago
You literally have me blocked on Twitter 😂
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Jameson Lopp18d ago
No shit, my policy is to block cultists and clankers. I will once again presume that this is your way of evading actually committing to a wager that you know will result in the loss of your bitcoin.
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Asanoha17d ago
So you do like filters? Sorry, but I don’t gamble with shitcoiners.
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LMK17d ago
I heard that's why his lazer eyes are blue.... because he's a shitcoiner... heh heh heh 😏
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