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2026-03-12 06:00 UTC | BLOCK 940360 BITCOIN $69,479 | GOLD $5,118 1. Iran Strike Odds Crater to 25% From Peak 92% -- Polymarket Iran-strikes-Israel collapsed further overnight; US entry eased to 26%, ceasefire holding at 27%. -- Fastest de-escalation arc of the entire conflict, yet Hormuz locked at 100% and tanker attacks continue. Gold retreating to $5,118. 2. Goldman Joins BlackRock, PIMCO Flagging Credit Stress -- Goldman Sachs March pulse warns private credit concerns "resurfaced and intensified after recent liquidity events." -- Third major asset manager in a week signaling cracks; systemic credit stress now consensus risk alongside war and tariffs. 3. BTC Stabilizes Pre-PCE, SPR Repricing Dominates -- Bitcoin holding $69,479 after 172M-barrel SPR release repriced oil-inflation expectations; Friday PCE now the macro trigger. -- ETF weekly inflows at $934M provide structural floor; market in holding pattern until inflation data confirms or denies rate-cut path.